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Tim Marsh

Fall is the New Spring in Real Estate

Courtesy of Andrea Brambila - Inman News.

      

Record-low mortgage rates, skyrocketing buyer demand, and shrinking inventory have pushed the housing market's busy season forward through at least the end of the year.

Record-low mortgage interest rates, the increased need for more spacious, multifunctional homes during the coronavirus pandemic, and timelines that no longer necessarily revolve around the start of the school year have fueled homebuyer demand so much that fall is looking more like a new spring in the housing market this year.

“This spring was like no other,” Brian Rubenstein, senior director of mortgage at online lender Ally Home, told Inman in a phone interview. “The pandemic and the market dislocations were quite unprecedented.”

Due to the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low in an effort to shore up a faltering economy, and rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have been hovering around 3 percent. This week, National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun declared that 2020’s housing market was outperforming 2019’s housing market and predicted that this year’s home sales would end up higher than the 5.34 million homes sold in 2019.

Rubenstein doesn’t expect rates to rise and that means that the market will likely see what he called an “extended spring cycle.”

“We’ve begun to see a steady increase in people hitting the market, inventory remains lower than usual, but at the same time, with demand being so high, we’re seeing the average home price jump dramatically.

“For the first time we’re also seeing the new entrants into the market — first time homebuyers — not really being scared off by that. They’re really looking to settle in and really begin their home purchase journey, given everything that’s happened in the current landscape.”

Ally saw a delay in the spring market that lasted about two months. Whereas the market typically starts heating up in March as homebuyers figure out where they want to be for the following school year, this year it wasn’t until May that mortgage application volume started picking up, according to Rubenstein.

“Our app volume’s up close to 160 percent of where it was year over year. The purchase market has begun to pick up steam as the refi wave continues to dwindle a little bit,” he said.

Although Ally declined to share raw numbers, the company said the share of first-time homebuyers in July and August had grown to 60 percent of purchase volume, up from 42 percent of purchase volume in July and August 2019 — a 43 percent year-over-year increase.

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“I would expect us to continue to see a steady pick up in purchase volume through the remainder of this year and … [stay] buoyed by the spring market next year,” Rubenstein said.

While there is usually a dip in mortgage volume around the holidays, whether there is one this year is up in the air, in part because people are less likely to travel extensively until there’s a vaccine, according to Rubenstein.

“If folks are not open to traveling during the holiday season, it could present an opportunity for us to continue the continued climb in the mortgage space,” he said.

Additionally, companies that are currently having their employees telecommute could decide to extend that arrangement, allowing people to ditch their previous commutes and “re-tether” themselves to an area that’s more important to them because it’s closer to relatives or a particular school, according to Rubenstein.

“It could help perpetuate … the late spring market through the fall, through the winter, into the following spring,” he said.

Because school is unlikely to be solely in-person, that could encourage families to move around more as well.

“If the caregiver or parent is remote, and the child is either remote, or there are going to be multiple options in the future for children to facilitate learning, whether it’s through virtual or e-learning, that provides a lot more flexibility optionality for folks when they’re making home purchase decisions,” Rubenstein said.

“People are going to be thinking about that probably in a different way, given the landscape of the environment. I think that could help further stimulate this market that we’re seeing now and continue on at least through some point next year.”

Real estate data firm CoreLogic saw home prices rise 5.5 percent year over year in July — the highest rate since 2018. Real estate brokerage Redfin saw home prices rise even more in the markets it operates in — 8.2 percent — canceling outa 6.9 percent increase in buyer purchasing power due to low mortgage rates. The firm attributed the price increases to a combination of low inventory and high buyer demand.

Instead of experiencing their usual fall decline, home prices will at least hold at their current “record high levels” for the next quarter, according to Mike Simonsen, CEO of housing market analytics firm Altos Research. Simonsen hosted a webinar Thursday titled “The Key Data to Watch Right Now in Real Estate.”

Source: Altos Research

“Normally where we are in late summer is the high and we’re starting to reduce prices before the end of the year. We don’t want to be stuck with a home in November that’s been on the market since July, so they get cut,” he said.

“[This year] our whole seasonal reset is way lower than a normal year. Twenty-five [or] 26 percent instead of 36 [or] 37 percent of homes are taking price reductions. That’s because there’s demand in the market. That’s homes getting listed and sold quickly. That’s multiple offers, and that says that the homes that are listed now in the prices that we’ve got now hold up for transactions that happen later in September, in October, November.”

        

Source: Altos Research

That demand is being met with shrinking inventory. Altos predicts the number of single-family homes for sale will continue to drop through the end of the year.

Source: Altos Research

“We had just a couple of weeks in March of climbing inventory in 2020, and then the rest of the year when normally we’d have all this inventory increasing, inventory dropped rapidly every week from April all the way through,” Simonsen said.

“It’ll be flat for a couple of weeks here in September and then you can expect the majority to pull back. The second week of January is when we get our inventory turn. It starts the new listings for the springtime. We may be at 378,000 homes for sale for the whole country. It’s insanely low. That would be half of what a normal January would start at and like a third of what a healthy market would be.”

Source: Altos Research

Altos expects that some homes will come on the market as the first six months of mortgage forbearance end for some homeowners at the end of September. At that point, some will decide to sell their homes, but most will re-extend their forbearance period so that it ends in March, which may mean new inventory in April, according to Simonsen. Still others who are currently in forbearance but not responding to their lenders may go into foreclosure on January 1 as the current foreclosure moratorium ends, or may decide to sell to avoid foreclosure, he added.

“Because prices are high, equity is at record levels, homes are moving fast, it seems unlikely that we’re going to get a wave of foreclosures, but more likely that we might have folks that say, ‘Well, I’m going to take my cash now,'” Simonsen said.

“For Realtors that communication of the opportunity to walk away with your cash pretty quickly because demand is high is a listing opportunity to take advantage of.”

In response to a post on Inman’s Coast to Coast Facebook page, real estate pros mostly expected the fall market to be as busy as their spring normally would be.

“The [Washington D.C.-Maryland-Virginia area] has been extremely busy,” wrote Don McGlynn, associate broker at Compass. “Low inventory is resulting in a price squeeze. Things would have to change drastically for that to slow down in the fall.”

“We are still seeing low inventory and multiple offers on many homes,” he added. “30 years in the business and I have never seen this before.” But, he added, “[R]eal estate is cyclical. I think when the pandemic is over we will see more homes coming on the market. It should lead to a more balanced market.”

Some agents and brokers anticipate staying busy, but predict low inventory will stymie sales.

“In the Chicagoland market as long as people don’t have to commute to an office to work in, we will continue to see homes selling in specific price points where home buyers can have the separate living spaces to accommodate the household needs for working and education as well as greater outdoor space,” wrote Andrea Geller, a broker at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Chicago.

“For the most part I haven’t had a lull and still continue to get new opportunities with new and past clients, which is giving me a good pipeline of business,” she added. “One of many [factors] choking up listings and some buys are the courts are so behind that sales that are a result of things like divorces or estate issues are on hold until the right to sell them is there.”

Glenn Phillips, CEO of Lake Homes Realty which operates in 30 states, anticipates “above-average buyer demand continuing, and the deal flow continuing to be limited by low inventory through the [f]all.”

But he predicts the repercussions of the pandemic to hit next year. “After the stimulus money runs out (sooner or later, even if there is another round), this tempo may change as the economic scars from the pandemic will become more obvious to the markets and the economy. The election outcomes will also influence the tempo of the market next year,” he wrote.

Tim Marsh (Owner | Broker)

Marsh Properties, Inc.

tim@bostonluxuryrealestate.com

(C) 617-548-7145

$6,675,000 Heritage On The Garden Exclusive Sold and Closed in Just 49 Days!

          

Listed for sale on 7/13/20 by Exclusive Broker Tim Marsh, one of Boston's quintessential luxury condominiums sold and closed in just 49 days.

Full service living in this palatial 3BR, 2.5 bath residence with 2,583 interior SF at the world-class Heritage On The Garden! One of only four residences at the Heritage with a ~1,200 SF private side terrace that offers 25' of frontage on the Public Garden and postcard views! 

Elegant entry foyer. Unobstructed views of the Public Garden from the 31' wide Fp'd Living/dining room. Classic Heritage kitchen with window. Large 25'x21' master BR features a terrace, marble bath en-suite and W-I closet. Two family BR's. 2nd full bath. Powder room. Laundry closet. Two full garage spaces are included. One storage closet. 

Boasting one of Boston's most valuable addresses, the Heritage is also close to the Boston Common, Newbury Street shops and restaurants, Charles River and Esplanade and the Back Bay and Downtown Business Districts. Services include daily tea service and Sunday brunch in the Great Library overlooking the Public Garden, on-site mgmt., 24/7 Concierge, Doorman and Major Domo.

Click to see a virtual tour: Heritage 1002 Virtual Tour

Click to see more info on this property: Heritage 1002 Property info

Click to see property floor plan: Heritage 1002 Floor Plan

 

Contact Exclusive Listing Broker - Tim Marsh

(C) 617-548-7145 or tim@bostonluxuryrealestate.com

 

New Exclusive - Renovated 3rd floor two bedroom penthouse with private deck and full parking space for $549,900!

MLS# 72703432

Sunny 830 SF two bedroom, 3rd floor penthouse with private step-out deck and full parking space!   

Lovely 1870 row house meticulously renovated into three condominium units in 2015. 

Original historic accents blend with the modern convenience of single floor-thru living. Bow windowed living room and second bedroom overlook Eutaw St. Cooks' kitchen features granite counters, stainless steel appliances, gas cooking with vent hood, window and breakfast counter. Private master bedroom on the rear. Full bathroom includes marble accents, vanity and tub/shower combination. 

Private 19' x 8' deck off the living level with direct access to the full parking space. 

W/D in unit. Central AC. Recessed lighting throughout. Four California Closets. Gas heat and hot water. Large private storage area. 

Fabulous location in one of East Boston's most vibrant neighborhoods - historic Eagle Hill. Close to Eastie's best restaurants, including Angela's Cafe and Rino's Place, grocery store and the Airport T Station.

      

Contact Ellen Zumbado (C) 603-502-7828 or ellen@bostonluxuryrealestate.com for a private viewing.

Gorgeous Marlborough Street 3BR Penthouse Features a Private ~1,000 SF Roof Deck With Postcard Views!

Stunning 3 Bedroom, 2.5 bath penthouse duplex of almost 2000 sq.ft of luxurious living featuring an additional 1000 +/- sq.ft. mutli-level roof deck with dramatic views of the Back Bay & Boston downtown skyline. The large marble, fireplace'd living room is flanked by 2 sets of French doors leading out to an additional 6'x24' terrace overlooking Marlborough St. Both outdoor spaces are fully landscaped & complete with an automated 3 zone irrigation system, dressed with accent lighting throughout. The open floor plan provides for fabulous entertainment with a separate marble wet bar & N'Finity Pro wine refrigerator. The grand dining room has a large skylight & lovely period sconces. Renovated, sky-lit kitchen is accented with an unusually large piece of inlaid granite floor matching the counters & back splash. Custom cabinetry, double Viking ovens, 5 burner Miele cooktop  & Subzero refrigerator provide all the elements needed for that perfect kitchen. Elevator. One full parking space.  $2,999,000

Take a Video Tour

    

  

Cheryl Marsh

(C) 617-797-5781 or cheryl@bostonluxuryrealestate.com

Recently Listed Luxury Two Bedroom Condominium With All The Right Touches - at The Heritage On The Garden!

Recently listed luxurious, full service two bedroom home at the world-class Heritage On The Garden.  Center Belvedere elevator access.  Elegant granite-accented circular foyer.  28' living room with bay window and dedicated dining area.  Chef's fully appointed S/S and granite kitchen.  Lovely master bedroom with sweeping bay window. Sumptuous white marble master bathroom en-suite features a step in shower with two sets of controls and two vanities.  Large second bedroom.  Adjacent granite-accented shower stall bathroom.  Laundry room.  Two tandem garage spaces.  Boasting one of Boston's most valuable addresses, the Heritage is located across from the Boston Public Garden and close to the Boston Common, Newbury Street shops and restaurants, Charles River and Esplanade and the Back Bay and Downtown Business Districts.  Services include daily tea service and Sunday brunch in the Great Library overlooking the Public Garden, on-site management, 24/7 Concierge, Doorman and Major Domo.  $2,685,000

Take a video tour of this property at  https://player.vimeo.com/video/424207177

    

      

Tim Marsh

(C) 617-548-7145 or tim@bostonluxuryrealestate,com

Pristine Two Bedroom Condominium overlooking Chestnut Street on the Coveted South Slope of Beacon Hill

The coveted South Slope is home to this lovely two BR condominium with postcard views of Chestnut Street and a Southern exposure.  Entry foyer with coat closet.  Spacious 21’ living room with electric fireplace and two picture windows overlooking Chestnut. Renovated S/S and granite kitchen with picture window.  Rare dining room.  Large master bedroom features two closets, large picture window overlooking Chestnut and a full bath en-suite.  Second bedroom with closet is positioned at the opposite end of the condo from the master bedroom.  Adjacent full bathroom.  Architectural moldings and new wood floors add to the charm of this home.  27 Chestnut boasts a popular and convenient location just a few blocks up from the Charles Street shops and restaurants and is close to the Boston Common, Public Garden, Charles River and Esplanade and Financial District.  Residents enjoy a common roof deck with panoramic views, courtyard, fitness room, private storage, laundry room and bike storage.  $1,750,000

  Take a video tour of this property at:  https://youtu.be/El-VVLDgfMQ

            

         

Tim Marsh

(C) 617-548-7145 or tim@bostonluxuryrealestate.com      

Newly Priced 3BR Marlborough Street Penthouse Boasts ~1,000 SF of Spectacular Outdoor Space!

Stunning 3 Bedroom, 2.5 bath penthouse duplex set within 1,912 SF of luxurious interior living space.  Features an additional ~1,000 SF mutli-level roof deck with dramatic views of the Back Bay, Charles River and the Boston skyline. The large marble, fireplace'd living room is flanked by 2 sets of French doors leading out to an additional terrace overlooking Marlborough St. Both outdoor spaces are fully landscaped & complete with an automated 3 zone irrigation system and dressed with accent lighting throughout. The open floor plan provides for fabulous entertainment with a separate marble wet bar & N'Finity Pro wine refrigerator. The grand dining room has a large skylight & lovely period sconces. Renovated, sky-lit kitchen is accented with an unusually large piece of inlaid granite floor matching the counters & back splash. Custom cabinetry, double Viking ovens, 5 burner Miele cooktop  & Subzero refrigerator provide all the elements needed for that perfect kitchen. Elevator. One full parking space.

              

            

    

    Contact Cheryl Marsh to schedule a private viewing.

   Cell: 617-797-5781   Email: cheryl@bostonluxuryrealestate.com

Tim Marsh Lists a Luxury Two Bedroom Plus Den at the Full Service Trinity Place for $3.1M!

Rare "Nose" unit overlooking Copley Square.  Palatial single floor condo at Trinity Place, a Tier-1 full service doorman building centrally located in Copley Square. Residence features: Entry foyer with closet. Gallery entry hall.  Fabulous 26’ living room with postcard views of the Trinity Church, Boston Public Library, John Hancock tower and Fairmont Copley Plaza Hotel. Chef’s granite-accented kitchen. Adjacent utility room with washer/dryer.  Master bedroom suite offers a sitting room, two closets and a marble-accented master bath with double-sink vanity and linen closet.  Guest bedroom with walk-in closet and en-suite full bathroom.  Den/study with built-in bookcase/cabinets. Powder room. Includes two valet garage spaces and extra storage.  Services include elevator, 24/7 concierge, valet and on-site management.  Residents enjoy in-room dining from Sorellina Restaurant, a private entrance into the restaurant and a residents-only fitness center.  Convenient access to routes 90, 93, 1 and the Back Bay Train station.

               

             

   

   Contact Tim Marsh for a private viewing.

   Cell:  617-548-7145. Email:  tim@bostonluxuryrealestate.com

Originally Priced at $1,500,000, This Full Service Home at Battery Wharf Has Been Re-Priced at $1,395,000 for A Timely Sale!

Don't miss out on this fantastic buying opportunity!  Beautiful South-facing one bedroom full service condominium in coveted Battery Wharf on Boston Harbor.  This oversized home offers nearly 1,300 SF.  Large 27' open living room with Brazilian cherry wood floors, dining area and step-out balcony offering direct Boston Harbor views.  Open chef's kitchen features stainless steel appliances, gas cooking and granite counters.  Large master bedroom suite is replete with custom built-in cabinetry, numerous windows with Harbor views, custom walk-in closet and a luxurious marble bathroom en suite with double-sink vanity, soaking tub and large shower stall. Additional powder room. One valet garage parking space and private storage.  Washer & dryer.  Battery Wharf amenities include doorman, concierge, security, on-site professional management and fitness room.  The attached Battery Wharf Hotel offers offers in-room dining and housekeeping services. The Battery Wharf Grill, Exhale Spa and Marina and Water Taxi (Logan Airport service) are on-site.   Located on the Boston Harbor and close to the fine dining of the North End, TD Garden/North Station and major routes.

                  

                   

     

    Contact Tim Marsh for a private viewing of this property.
    Cell:  617-548-7145.  Email: tim@bostonluxuryrealestate.com

Originally priced at $1,659,000, this pristine full service home has been re-priced at $1,300,000 for a timely sale!

 Priced at only $689 per Square foot, don't miss out on this high floor 2BR , 2.5 Bath 1,886 SF home in the full service Macallen Building.   Unit highlights include: Large private terrace with Boston Harbor and city views.  Large LR with lofted ceilings, linear electric FP, wet bar, picture window and wood floors.  S/S and granite kitchen with dedicated eating area and direct access to the terrace.  Master bedroom with full. bath en-suite.  Second bedroom with adjacent full bath.  C/A.  W/D.  Full size garage space included.  Building amenities include:  24/7 concierge.  Elevator.  On-site professional management.  Garage parking.  Palatial 18,000 SF landscaped rooftop garden with heated lap pool and multiple gas grills.  Fitness Center.  Club room with kitchen.  Bike storage.  The Macallen is located in South Boston just south of the Financial District and close to many restaurants, major routes, a Whole Foods market and public transportation.  Gold LEED Certified Building built circa 2008.  Price:  $1,300,000.

               

  

  Contact Tim Marsh to schedule a private viewing.  

  Cell:  617-548-7145.  Email:  tim@bostonluxuryrealestate.com